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AcademyEvidence and Uncertainty

The Five States

This lesson takes 10 minutes.

Objectives

  • Classify a claim into the five states
  • Hold an empty cell without filling it

Lesson

Every consequential claim is Observed, Corroborated, Inferred, Hypothesized or Unknown. Observed is measured or witnessed. Corroborated is independently supported. Inferred is derived. Hypothesized is plausible but unconfirmed. Unknown means evidence is insufficient.

Do not convert uncertainty into certainty without evidence. Baseline Reality on the Desk has a reality-state tracker: use it for a claim you are weighing this week.

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