Four Hypotheses and the Falsifier

This lesson takes 9 minutes.

Objectives

Build the H1–H4 set
Name what would change a strong belief

Lesson

For consequential issues, hold four hypotheses: H1 the current explanation, H2 the strongest competitor, H3 a benign or non-malicious explanation, and H4 insufficient evidence. Then ask what evidence would distinguish them.

For every strong belief, name what evidence would change it. If the answer is nothing, the model is closed and is no longer analysis.

Terms

Falsifiability

Sources

www.cia.gov (opens in a new tab)
www.intelligence.gov (opens in a new tab)
www.govinfo.gov (opens in a new tab)

Check

- H4 — The algorithm already decided
- H4 — Insufficient evidence
- H4 — My side is always right
- H4 — Ignore H1–H3
- Unknown. Cannot be determined from the record.
- Always a foreign plot
- Always incompetence
- A benign explanation
- The current explanation
- A settled fact
- A closed model
- High confidence
- Corroboration