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FieldTechnique

Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

Richards J. Heuer Jr., CIA, 1970s; published 1999

A matrix scoring each item of evidence for inconsistency against every hypothesis at once.

Use

Any case with more than one plausible explanation, especially one where you already have a preference.

Limit

It does not weigh evidence quality for you. Garbage in the matrix produces a confident ranking of garbage.

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