High Confidence
Well-corroborated reporting from sources of proven reliability, or a method with a strong track record. Logic is sound and few assumptions are load-bearing.
Moderate Confidence
Credibly sourced and plausible, but not fully corroborated, or resting on assumptions that have not been tested.
Low Confidence
Sourcing is questionable, fragmentary or uncorroborated, or the reasoning depends on assumptions that cannot currently be checked. A low-confidence judgment can still be the right one to publish, labeled.