FieldP-12 · Likelihood, confidence, falsifier
Write the Finding
Produce a judgment a reader can weigh, check and overturn.
Step 1
Lead with the Judgment
The finding first, then the support. A reader who stops after one paragraph should have the answer.
Step 2
Give Likelihood a Number
Use the estimative lexicon and mean it. “Likely” is 55 to 80 percent; if you mean something else, say something else.
Step 3
State Confidence Separately
Likelihood is how probable the judgment is. Confidence is how good the sourcing and reasoning underneath it are. Never merge them into one word.
Step 4
Distinguish Evidence From Assumption
Mark which statements are reporting, which are inference, and which are assumption. The reader cannot see the difference unless you draw it.
Step 5
Describe the Sourcing
Access, reliability and corroboration, so the reader can discount independently of your conclusion.
Step 6
List the Alternatives You Rejected
With the reason each was rejected. A finding with no discarded alternatives was not an analysis.
Step 7
Name the Falsifier
The specific observation that would overturn this. If you cannot name one, you have written a position.
Step 8
State What You Did Not Establish
Explicitly. The gap will be read as a claim if you leave it unmarked.
How It Fails
The report that cannot be checked: no likelihood, no confidence, no alternatives, no falsifier, and an implied certainty the file does not support.