FieldP-05 · Disprove, do not confirm
Test Competing Hypotheses
Stop a favored explanation from selecting its own evidence.
Step 1
List Every Hypothesis
Generate before evaluating. Include the benign explanation, the coincidence, the error, and deliberate deception.
Step 2
List the Evidence and the Arguments
Including the absences — a thing that should be present and is not belongs in the matrix.
Step 3
Build the Matrix
Evidence down the side, hypotheses across the top. For each cell mark consistent, inconsistent or not applicable.
Step 4
Strike the Non-Diagnostic
Evidence consistent with every hypothesis distinguishes nothing. It can still be true and still be useless here.
Step 5
Rank by Inconsistency
The surviving hypothesis is the one with the least evidence against it, not the one with the most evidence for it.
Step 6
Test the Sensitive Items
Identify the few items the conclusion rests on. If one is wrong, what happens? Re-check those items hardest.
Step 7
Report the Whole Set
Publish the likelihood of the alternatives too, and the indicators that would shift the ranking later.
How It Fails
Confirmation bias with a spreadsheet. The matrix only works if you score inconsistency and strike the evidence that fits everything.