What to Do
State the judgment, the likelihood and the confidence as three separate things. Show the alternatives you rejected and why. Record dissent. Name the evidence that would overturn the finding, and say what you did not establish.
How It Fails
The finding that cannot be wrong. If no observation could overturn it, it is not a finding; it is a position. Confidence borrowed from the volume of the file is not confidence.
Check
- Likelihood and confidence stated separately
- Rejected hypotheses listed with the reason
- Falsifier named: what would overturn this
- What was not established is stated explicitly
- Dissent recorded, not smoothed away