When the Presumption Ate the Evidence

The 2005 review of the pre-war Iraq assessments found that analysts began from the country’s history of pursuing these weapons and let it harden into a presumption. In effect, the burden of proof inverted: disconfirming evidence was read as successful concealment, and confirming evidence was read as confirmation. The review described one strand of the reasoning as a theory that almost could not be disproved, because both supporting and contradicting facts were construed as support. Separately, a single defector source produced reporting that was later judged fabricated; it was not formally recalled until May 2004, after the invasion.